Demonetization’s awesome but unintentional Results

Our dear Prime minister & his right-hand man are jubilant at the sudden turn of events in North Indian Elections. As always, the key word has been the patented Ache Din & Vikas.
But 1 crucial factor which also turned the elections his way is Demonetization of high valued currency notes.
It was an amazing decision which even I felt was a master-stroke that night. I felt happy that those who were corrupt would be brought to their knees while god and law fearing people like me would be breathing a sigh of relief
They had time to prepare for it and even necessary man-power. But alas, as we Indians(except ISRO & DRDO) do, we couldnt manage it.
To be frank, the management of demonetisation was left to the affected people of India themselves & the D-Team assumed that as Indians, we will find a way through it. Mr. Modi who has come from the lowest levels of Indian life knows 2 characters which define people of Indian Sub-continent.
a. Our ability to adjust according to the situation without being overtly violent due to our tolerant nature. For e.g. we can accomodate 4 instead of 5 on a train seat. We may show disapproval because of this inconvenience, but we wont fight to death. We grudgingly accept the change and move on. We dont even consider it a problem after few days and it then becomes a part of our life.
b. Our jealous nature. People from the Indian Sub-continent are inherently jealous and can’t stand being left behind. Instead of being inspired by our neighbour growing, we would rather pull him down and laugh at his misfortune. This same nature caused India to be invaded by Middle-eastern rulers and then by the British. Every poor is jealous of the rich. Every Rich is jealous of the other rich.
If an accident occurs between a car and a bike, the crowd which gathers around will bash the car driver. If a pedestrain is knocked down by a car driver, people wont care if the Pedestrain came in between. They will go against the car driver. This is how our mind is set up. This is how we are inherently. I hope someone proves me other-wise.

So when demonetization happened, people faced their problems with sweat on their brows, but a smile on their faces. The poor did curse the step but were seen happy that some rich somewhere is going to lose all his ill-gotten wealth. Daily wage workers lost their jobs as there was no cash, but they didnt cause riots. They just went back to their villages. Middle class didnt mind as they had their digital cards. Even they were happy to hear that crores of black money was being unearthed. The rich industrialists were happy too as they already had wisely converted these cash holdings into fixed assets.

But you might be wondering that you know all this, so whats the unintentional here?
The unintentional was the windfall recieved by so many poor Jan-dhan account holder’s across India. They had 0 in their account till date. And then Mr. Modi came to their rescue on Nov 8th. The landlords, Business-men, Factory Owners, etc all had their cash in hand. But they needed people to roll the cash from black to white. Many labourers from cities had gone back to their villages as no one could pay them. This manpower of poverty stricken individuals got a new lease of life due to Demonetization.

These Business men paid these poor & neglected people to stand in queue for them and exchange their cash for 10% to 30% premium.
The more people from a family, the more they could earn. This was a windfall which was not caste based nor religion based. Everyone benefitted. Hindus & Muslims alike. Muslims were in an even better position as they had lots of children who could bring in more cash.
This was the real diwali for the poor. And what did the government spent? Close to Nothing. Because, they just took money from the rich and gave it to the poor. The rich were able to to keep 70% of their ill-gotten wealth, while the poor got the rest.

Imagine the states where this happened on a large scale? Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and even Madhya Pradesh & Rajastan. All the states where we have rich enterpreneurs and huge number of poor people.

So when you heard the Demonetization stories of deaths & hardships, it was not fake. It was true. But a greater truth was that there were many people who came with someone else’s money to exchange even though there was ample time to exchange. They thought of it as their providence. And they praised the 1 person who did this for them. Mr. Modi. Maybe he didnt envision this after effect. Or, maybe he did. Hence he took the decision before UP Elections.
But this decision helped the poor to gain some money. And in turn every one of them voted BJP in UP elections. Hindus voted along with Muslims in gratitude for his emotional & financial help.
Similarly, the Maharashtra elections for Zilla Parishad & Municipal elections was won by the poor for BJP who were happy about their sudden enrichment.

I would like to hear from people who might disagree about the above reasons. Caste politics aside, everyone including Muslims voted for BJP to give them this astounding victory. Hence I believe that this unintentional consequence had a major effect.


So much Hype, nothing to show

What we see below is the latest rankings for ease of doing business by world agencies.

The impression build in my country is that India is the best destination for Business. We have got the highest FDI among major economies and that is all thanks to our Super-human PM. He has convinced our gullible Janta, that he has brought superb governance and has brought the feel good factor back into the country. Hence people are investing money here. They are making in India.

But is it really happening?
Just check the latest ratings about ease of doing business. India is still languishing at 130. And no my brethren this is not due to the last 60 years as we opened up our market only since 1992.
As a matter of fact, our Right-wing brigade’s bogey-man Pakistan is the top 10 most improved country for ease of doing business.
But I didnt hear them shouting on top of their voice, except when they get bombed by their self-created terrorism.
I didnt hear Make in Pakistan or Troll army talking about Nwaz Sharif working for 18 hours. But they still managed this feat.

How I may ask? And the answer is simple
To get reforms done, you have to have working relationship with the opposition parties. You need to discuss and agree to few points from them. You need to keep the ball rolling. Get the bills passed. You cant talk about peeping into other people’s bathroom and watch someone taking shower with their raincoats on. You can’t go about your vindictive politics. You have to take everyone together. You don’t have to agree to all. But empathize with the demands and work on it.

Pakistan did just that. Other than the chatter box Imran who everyday wants to lay seize to Islamabad, politicians across their party lines worked together to get their reforms passed in parliament. That’s how you do it in a democracy. You dont bull-doze things.

Congratulations to Pakistan for their effort. But we ll surely take a leap forward by next year as GST has been agreed now.

Ease of doing business

Formula for Ache Din: GDP(Market Price) = GDP(Factor Cost) + Indirect Taxes – Subsidies

How to get the Ache Din? Atleast on Paper
PLAN A: Really bring about ache din by increasing lots of Jobs with simultaneous reduction in corruption
PLAN B: Either change the criteria of what Ache Din feels like & make people believe that ache din have come

Mr. Modi would have rightly felt that 5 years is quite a short period to achieve plan A. So he took on Plan B with utter dedication.
He hired a Yes Man for the job aka Arun Jaitley who would pursue Plan B with utmost zeal

Now we come to How this can be done:
Branding the intellectuals & NGOs as people who are part of this corrupt system, he managed to distance the common people away from their opinions. He portrayed them as the monsters responsible for common peoples’ misery. Such was the fervor that whatever the right-wing narrative plays, is the only truth in India nowadays.
Then he changed the way we calculate GDP. He managed to feed this Doped Janta, that high GDP means Ache Din. High GDP means India is growing faster.
So the Ache din Formula was tweaking how we calculated growth till date.

GDP(Market Price) = GDP(Factor Cost) + Indirect Taxes – Subsidies
Rather than going into details, I ll only touch Indirect Taxes and Subsidies

Mr. Modi brought in new taxes, Services Cess, surcharges, transaction charges, etc
By sheer luck, he got elected when the oil price fell as well as the commodity market. So he got a chance to reduce subsidies.
He exorted the doped Janta to give up subsidies. He pushed for digital economy to bring more people under indirect taxes.

Just by touching these 2 items, he managed to increase GDP. He is an extremely good orator and can be compared in this skill only next to Adolf Hitler. He sold it to his fans and foes alike.

Mr. Singh, Amartya Sen, etc didnt explain this┬ásimple formula of what he did to achieve these numbers. They couldn’t simplify and explain this to our doped janta of what happened.

But his luck will run out.
Oil price will rise and so would the commodity. GDP is still dependent on what people produce & people sell. There is a buyer’s market now. This will lose steam soon. And then it will be seller’s market. And imagine people reduce their spending. Then where would Mr. Jaitley run?